transparent solar glass "refuses" to open for expansion!

If it is said that which part of the photovoltaic industry chain is currently the most tense in supply, the answer must be the shortage and price increase of glass-silicon material, EVA, and backplane, which can be quickly solved by expanding production, and the cycle is relatively short, but the shortage of glass is almost inexplicable. On the one hand, due to policy restrictions such as the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Cement and Glass Industry", relevant enterprises cannot expand production on a large scale, and can only carry out limited capacity replacement; About a year and a half, as the so-called "distant water is difficult to quench thirst near."

Since the third quarter of this year, related companies and media have been calling for the relaxation of glass production expansion restrictions, but from the results of the communication between Sobey Photovoltaic Network and related companies, what they most hope to see is not a simple announcement, allowing glass products to be free The expansion of production means the orderly release of the management and control of technical and innovative products. At the same time, component products must be standardized as soon as possible to reduce glass size requirements. "Conditions allow a few technologically advanced companies to expand production of their advantageous products, unify module sizes, and avoid too concentrated downstream demand time. Only in this way can the problem of shortage of transparent solar glass be fundamentally solved." A glass company responsible person said.

Price Trend of transparent solar glass

According to PV Infolink statistics, the average price of 3.2mm glass last week was 42 yuan/㎡, the highest price was 48 yuan/㎡, and the average price of 2.0mm glass also reached 34 yuan/㎡. According to the information of Sobey Photovoltaic Network, some glass companies offer more than 50 yuan/m2 to second- and third-tier module companies, and the transaction price of 42 yuan/m2 only exists between large glass companies and first-line module companies with long-term and stable cooperation. It is very likely that it will continue to rise in the future.

Why can the price of transparent solar glass be "willful"? Is the production cost controllable? After communicating with relevant companies, the author learned that the production cost of glass mainly includes two parts: raw materials and fuel. Among them, the core of the raw materials are quartz sand and soda ash, and the fuel is mostly natural gas. "Many glass companies put the original production in Anhui, mainly because there are large-scale quartz sand mines in the area, which can meet the production needs." The glass company technician said.

According to reports, the original sheet is only the first step in the production of transparent solar glass. In order to obtain transparent solar glass that can be used by modules, it is necessary to go through filming, edging, drilling, cleaning, drying, coating, glazing, tempering, unloading, and packaging. Wait for more than a dozen processes, and several inspection steps in the middle. "The rise in glass prices before was due to the imbalance between market supply and demand on the one hand, and the prices of soda ash and natural gas on the other hand." The person in charge of the above-mentioned glass company pointed out that after a wave of increases in the third quarter, the price of soda ash has stabilized recently, but in winter The price of natural gas has risen, and some regions have restricted the production of glass companies in order to meet environmental protection requirements, which will aggravate the shortage of supply in the market and push up the price of glass.

In the eyes of many people in the industry, the continued rise in glass prices is no longer in line with the law of value. Unlike silicon materials, even if the price of transparent solar glass increases, it cannot increase the market supply. Instead, it will force module companies to reduce production and affect the overall development of the industry. Wang Bohua, vice chairman and secretary-general of China Photovoltaic Industry Association, said that it is expected that the newly installed capacity will be 35-45GW in 2020, and it is likely to fall in the range of 35-40GW, which is lower than before. One of the reasons is the recent supply chain price. rise.

According to public reports in the media, the heads of many power station investment companies frequently "visit" photovoltaic companies, mainly to ensure the supply of components, and some companies have been forced to suspend the connection of some bidding projects to the grid. The author believes that the price increase of modules caused by the price increase of glass has exceeded 0.1 yuan/W, and the behavior of module companies "losing money and making a profit" cannot last for a long time, and will definitely find other ways to solve the problem. Therefore, the space for glass prices to continue to rise is very limited, but the supply for the whole year of next year is still in a state of tension, and it is likely to maintain a high price.

The huge gap in transparent solar glass

According to the data provided by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, by the end of September 2020, there were a total of 114 ultra-clear rolled glass melting furnaces and 245 production lines in the country, with a production capacity of 32,580 tons per day, of which 48 melting furnaces and 164 production lines were in production, with a production capacity of 28,320 tons per day. , the capacity utilization rate is 87%. my country's solar tempered glass production capacity accounts for about 90% of the global production capacity, and has become the world's largest solar tempered glass producer and exporter. At present, the domestic solar tempered glass production capacity is 24,750 tons/day under construction and planned, of which 10,600 tons/day is ready for ignition and production, mainly in Anhui and Guangxi.

Sobey Photovoltaic Network calculates that under the condition of 85% pass rate, the above-mentioned production capacity corresponds to 2.83 million square meters/day of 3.2mm solar tempered glass, or 4.72 million square meters/day of 2.0mm solar tempered glass. Demand for glass modules or 176GW double glass modules.

However, the gap of solar tempered glass is obvious to all, and the supply is particularly tight in the fourth quarter of this year. After communicating with relevant companies, we learned that in addition to the reasons mentioned in the article "Glass is in short supply, the module gap exceeds 10GW in the fourth quarter!", the domestic market demand is too concentrated and the module companies are expanding too quickly. According to the data released by the National Energy Administration, in the fourth quarter of 2019, the newly installed capacity nationwide accounted for 46.9% of the whole year.

In addition, according to the incomplete statistics of Sobey Photovoltaic Network, the current expansion plan proposed by photovoltaic companies exceeds 272.7GW in the battery segment and over 279GW in the module segment, which is staggering. In the past 9 years, my country's clear glass solar panels production capacity has grown by more than 19% annually, which is basically the same as the global increase in newly installed capacity (21%). of.